Friday, October 10, 2014

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES – 10 OCT


 

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES:-

  • SGX NIFTY  is   59 POINTS  DOWN showing   BIG GAP DOWN OPENING  . So the BANKNIFTY also will open will around 150-200 POINTS GAP DOWN.
  • FII Activity – IN CASH SOLD --20 CR INDEX FUT BOUGHT --566 CR

 

BANKNIFTY FUT DEMAND SUPPLY
1 15431 15860
2 15286 16012
3 15168 16180

These levels are where we have to watch how market reacts and we have to take decision as per the PRICE ACTION.

WHAT CHART is SAYING?

image

  • As we expected yesterday it played the POSITIVE DIVERGENCE well and given a big upmove on the cues from US. And now today cues from US are negative with BIG fall in US
  • We can see hourly chart of BANKNIFTY above which clearly showing where BNF went yesterday… it reached the level where SUPPORT become resistance… and this may go further to break the recent lows made by BNF.

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Thursday, October 9, 2014

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES—9 OCT


 

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES:-

  • SGX NIFTY  is   37 POINTS GAP DOWN showing   FLAT to NEGATIVE OPENING  . So the BANKNIFTY also will open will around 100-130 POINTS GAP DOWN.
  • FII Activity – IN CASH SOLD --1440 CR / INDEX FUT SOLD --195 CR

 

BANKNIFTY FUT DEMAND SUPPLY
1 15347 15546
2 15198 16625
3   16723

These levels are where we have to watch how market reacts and we have to take decision as per the PRICE ACTION.

WHAT CHART is SAYING?

image

  • We can see clearly in chart there is a +ve Divergence in BNF and it bounced back. And today if we consider this upchannel to continue then BNF may show the above levels.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES—7 OCT


 

BANKNIFTY PREMARKET NOTES:-

  • SGX NIFTY  is   around 50 POINTS GAP DOWN (if we adjust as per Wednesdays Closing)showing  NEGATIVE OPENING  . So the BANKNIFTY also will open will around 120-15- POINTS GAP DOWN.
  • FII Activity – IN CASH SOLD --63 CR / INDEX FUT BOUGHT ++72 CR

 

BANKNIFTY FUT DEMAND SUPPLY
1    
2    
3    

These levels are where we have to watch how market reacts and we have to take decision as per the PRICE ACTION.

 

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Saturday, October 4, 2014

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named... Was Just Named


The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a "Japan-style" deflation. Here's our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It's happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that's akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: "deflation."

And it's not just "deflation." You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

"Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend."

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there's no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are "Japan-style" deflation.

"Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to 'lost decades' of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge." (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren't Europe's central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of "money-printing," bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is... yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What's more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn't utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe's retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here's a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

-- 2011 --

January 2011: The "D" word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

"Around the world, many countries aren't confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite -- inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years."

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates -- to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.'s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says "we can now breathe a little easier."

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

"We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks' paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread."

September 2011: U.K.'s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

-- 2012 --

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of "money-printing" to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: "PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes," the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers "seek therapy." (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

"Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they're again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009."

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

"European leaders," by slashing rates and printing money "seem determined to replicate Japan's experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation."

-- 2014 --

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

"The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

"More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

"The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe's most robust economy."

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

"In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe's flagging economy and Japan's... Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

"The central bank's latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks' overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe's largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe -- years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, our newest European Financial Forecast provides you with objective, ahead-of-the-turn analysis of what's to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International's Investor Open House is still underway.

Meaning: You have until October 1 to get instant free access to the complete latest European Financial Forecast, with its critical insights into the next wave of sea changes in store for the economies across the pond.

Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity to read EWI's premier subscriber reports FREE >>


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named... Was Just Named. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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Friday, October 3, 2014

An Epic Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Bear Market


By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

Recent weeks brought the biggest confrontation with Moscow since the Cold War, a race riot, a new low in the popularity of President Obama and grisly beheadings at the hands of religious terrorists amidst a major re-escalation of the war in Iraq.

If this sounds a lot like 1968, when Russia invaded Czechoslovakia, President Johnson bowed out of the presidential race as his popularity plummeted and the Vietnam war took a decisive turn for the worst, there's a perfectly logical Wave Principle basis for it; both periods contain the end of high degree B-wave rallies. This week there was also a cyber attack on major banks and a report of the lowest summer box office in 30 years.

Near the beginning of Grand Supercycle wave III (circled) (Elliott wave labels not shown), not even the United States rated designation as a functioning democracy. But a broadening of suffrage laws in the 1810s and 1820s made it the lone liberal democracy by the end of Supercycle wave I in 1835.

The negative news causes some observers to insist that investors are in a dark mood and that stocks are climbing a "wall of worry." At last week's San Francisco Money Show, for instance, a subscriber noted that one pundit was bullish because "everyone is bearish." This contrary position would stand every chance of panning out, if it were true. But it's not even close.

Investors Intelligence recorded just 15.1% bearish advisors in their current weekly survey, which, except for December of last year, matches the lowest total since 1987. The bullish plurality in the weekly American Association of Individual Investors poll, a cautious group in general, jumped to 32.7%, the highest extreme for the year and the third highest in eight years. The percentage of sentiment indicators tracked by SentimenTrader.com that are "bullish for stocks" is zero. On the other hand, optimistic extremes, which are "bearish for stocks," have been featured in virtually every 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. These measures depict an epic optimism that doesn't just disappear; it can be reversed only by a huge bear market.

According to Freedom House, the total number of functioning democracies is 88, down from a peak of 90 in 2007. The current total remains historically high, but it's back to where it was in 1998.

Such confidence has been showing up everywhere, from the eager buying of junk bonds to elevated M&A activity, which the Financial Forecast showed in July. This month, Burger King's bid for Tim Hortons, a Canadian coffee shop chain, and other merger deals put the U.S. on pace to possibly "top the all-time record set in 2007."

According to CNNMoney, the latest big deals, are "good news because they signal growing confidence. People and businesses don't spend big amounts of money unless they are optimistic about the future."

"We've got a steadily improving economy, there aren't issues out there that will derail things," says an investment banker. This kind of supreme confidence is the hallmark of a major stock market peak.

As the events at the top of this article attest, there are increasing manifestations of negative social mood. But as the Financial Forecast discussed last month, optimism is so entrenched that even bad news is perceived as good for stocks. An example that we cited last month was the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and its enemies, which investors quickly labeled as an opportunity to buy stocks. Not so. The August issue of the Financial Forecast included a chart that shows similar outbreaks accompanying most of the major stock market tops since 1929.

Negative economic news is also cropping up, but every bad number simply evokes a cry of "Buying opportunity!" from investors. When word hit on August 13 of an unexpected stall in July U.S. retail sales, investors saw "the silver lining."

"Shockingly bad economic data in Europe" says a Bloomberg article, "is being treated as good news by the markets."

Many of these calls are rooted in the belief in an omnipotent U.S. Federal Reserve.

"Investors who say, 'It's up too much, you can't buy it' have been playing a fool's game," said a money manager. "The Fed's not about to rein in the economy any time soon."

Under the headline, "Markets Rarely Crater in Periods of Carefulness," The Wall Street Journal on August 14 noted that "stocks are heavily dependent on Fed support."

We'll stick with our unpopular and contrary view on this one: Unbridled faith in central bankers and their money printing efforts is not "careful," it's cavalier. Believing in the Fed's omnipotence is the biggest and most dangerous investment myth of all time, and it will end unhappily for bullish investors.

To continue reading Hochberg and Kendall's 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here to join EWI's free Investors Open House now.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Inside Look: An Epic Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Bear Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Read more ...

Thursday, October 2, 2014

The Democracy Wave Recedes: Does this Chart Show a Developing Bear Market for Liberal Democracy?


By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

This updated chart of the total number of liberal democracies is from Robert Prechter's book, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, which observed that bull markets "tend to lead to political freedom, while retrenchments lead to political repression."

Near the beginning of Grand Supercycle wave III (circled) (Elliott wave labels not shown), not even the United States rated designation as a functioning democracy. But a broadening of suffrage laws in the 1810s and 1820s made it the lone liberal democracy by the end of Supercycle wave I in 1835.

Various measures of democracy yield different totals, but the consensus tends to show that democracy started to spread at the beginning of the Supercycle wave III in 1842. The basic pattern is shown on the chart from WPHSB, which is constructed with data from The End of History by Francis Fukuyama as well as data from Freedom House, a democratic watchdog organization, beginning in 1973.

In a 1991 paper, "Democracy's Third Wave," social scientist Samuel Huntington states that the "first 'long' wave of democratization began in the 1820s and continued until 1926, bringing into being some 29 democracies." A "reverse wave" into the mid-1940s, reduced the number of democratic states to 12. Most of this period constituted a Supercycle-degree bear market in inflation adjusted terms. After another wave of democratization carried into the 1960s, "a second reverse wave brought the number of democracies back down to 30." A third wave toward democratization began in 1975, which matches well with the bull market, as it was the first year of Cycle wave V in stocks (in nominal terms). So, the trend toward democracy tracks the trend in the stock market remarkably well. The reason is that social mood is in charge of both trends.

According to Freedom House, the total number of functioning democracies is 88, down from a peak of 90 in 2007. The current total remains historically high, but it's back to where it was in 1998.

Underneath the surface, Freedom House's data show that democracy is losing ground. After years of gains, the number of countries showing improvement in political rights and civil liberties is below those showing declines in similar measures, and it has been since 2006.

In the early 1990s, the Berlin Wall fell and Fukuyama famously declared that mankind's ideological evolution had reached an "end point" in which liberal democracy would be the "final form of human government." American-style democracy went on to expand into an unprecedented number of countries, but that trend has clearly run out of steam. A New York Times op-ed columnist now says, "Pax Americana is in decline." Here's an assessment from a July article in Foreign Policy:

The Third Wave Peters Out

The end of the Cold War ushered in an era of expanding freedom. Is the golden age of democratic transitions drawing to a close?

What is the state of democracy in the world today? Though few of the democratic gains of the past have been decisively reversed, the last few years have been a discouraging period for democracy, and 2014 presents particular cause for alarm. Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatism in other parts of Ukraine highlight a trend toward the resurgence of authoritarian powers and a new willingness on their part to employ military and other means to counter democracy. The new assertiveness of the authoritarians can be seen in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and in China's actions in the South China Sea, as well as a variety of other arenas in which they are pursuing policies aimed at the "containment of democracy."

There is reason to suspect that what we have been calling the post-Cold War period has come to a close. The chances are that the years ahead will witness greater international instability than the world had seen for the past several decades.

Subscribers to our sister-publication, The Socionomist, read about the trend toward authoritarianism back in 2010, as well as in the March, April and May issues this year. Socionomists are ahead of trends because we know their cause.

Now, finally the trend-watchers can see what's happening because, as they say, the writing is on the wall. It probably won't be too long before the walls are literal.

To continue reading Hochberg and Kendall's 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here to join EWI's free Investors Open House now.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Democracy Wave Recedes: Does this Chart Show a Developing Bear Market for Liberal Democracy?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Read more ...

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Inside Look: The Specter of Global Debt Default is Once Again Rearing its Head


By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

A key milestone in the prelude to the stock market's 2007 peak came in the week of July 16, 2007, when Bear Stearns announced that two of its subprime mortgage funds had lost nearly all of their value.

The firm liquidated the funds two weeks later and by August a "worldwide" credit crunch was on, as subprime mortgage-backed bonds were "discovered" in the portfolios of banks and hedge funds from Paris to China.

The Dow Jones Composite Index topped that week and started a 54% decline, but the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 made a slightly higher high in October 2007 before tumbling into their biggest declines since the Great Depression.

By March 2008, Bear Stearns, an 85-year stalwart of Wall Street, was bankrupt and forced to sell itself to JP Morgan Chase.

In recent weeks, the specter of global debt default is once again rearing its head.

On August 1, Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt, which occurred on the heels of bond defaults in South African and Portuguese banks. Meanwhile, Chinese property companies are starting to fail in the same way that subprime funds imploded in mid-2007.

We think these scattered pockets of default are a prelude to the upcoming debacle. The next, more virulent phase of the credit crisis will focus on government, bank and real estate loans the world over.

A change in social mood is behind the shift, and it will soon affect the stock market.

To continue reading Hochberg and Kendall's 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here to join EWI's free Investors Open House now.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Inside Look: The Specter of Global Debt Default is Once Again Rearing its Head. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Read more ...
 

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